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The film industry, like many others, is being affected deeply by the coronavirus. The uncertainty this pandemic is creating all around the world is scary and, although many might find the film industry to be one of the least important industries to be impacted by it, the truth is millions of people are relying on films and TV shows for comfort. No matter how relevant you think the film industry is at this time, you cannot deny that it is a big part of the US economy. Although not as big as Hollywood, film industries in other territories also create many jobs, are culturally relevant and offer the chance for people to understand different cultures all around the world. 

 

 

So we all know the basics. Movie theatres are currently closed, while streaming is way up. This is normal in a time where a great part of the world is on lockdown, but how will this affect the film industry in the long run? I think it’s hard to say at this point as there are so many variables that we can’t control at this time. However, I read this article about how the Spanish flu affected the film industry in the early twentieth century. Adolph Zuckor used these times to radically change the US film business model by establishing the studio system and vertical integration which is still a big part of Hollywood today. I can imagine big changes are coming up for our current industry so I’ve tried to talk about how the coronavirus is affecting different parts of the film industry and what it could mean for the future. This of course is heavily speculative as it’s hard to predict the future in a time of such drastic changes. So come with me in this journey, will you?

 

So yeah, theatres are closed. Though, of course, necessary, this will be incredibly hard on them. I hope I am wrong, but we have to keep in mind that public cultural spaces such as cinemas will probably be the last to open up. China, who started to open a few theatres while slowly trying to return to their normal lives, had their government quickly rectify their decision and close them back again. It is very possible that the Chinese government is of course scared of a new contagion among their population and decided that maybe theatres are not the most important business to open up right now. 

 

This is huge. The Chinese Film Industry is incredibly powerful. There’s a big appreciation for local films in China. Many of them make more money than Hollywood imports! According to Box Office Mojo, this summer, the Chinese animated feature “NeZha” (Yu Yang, 2019) grossed $719,755,767. Just so you get an idea, “Avengers: Endgame” (Anthony and Joe Russo, 2019) made $614,316,021. Not small potatoes, huh? So clearly, the Chinese box office results are very important for any film that premieres there. Taking this into consideration, you can imagine the Chinese government is not making this decision lightly. 

 

As an alternative to movie theatres, I’ve read drive-in movie theatres are making a comeback some places. Also, I’m wondering if, further down the line, open air film experiences will gain more popularity around the world. Although maybe not as comfortable as a movie theatre, it might be a way to start to regain this experience. Clearly, this would have to be done by taking the necessary precautions such as keeping a certain distance between spectators, using masks, etc. Not sure if this will be a thing, but it might be worth considering if the safety of everyone involved can be guaranteed.

 

These possible alternatives will not be a substitute for the traditional movie theatre experience, mind you. And there is a big chance that these theatres don’t open around the world for months. I know some states in the US are talking about opening sooner. However, in most countries, this doesn’t seem like the case. So what is happening? Well, some films, such as “Black Widow” (Cate Shortland, 2020?) have decided to postpone their release. Many other films have decided to “skip” the theatrical window and jump directly to VOD. This is the case for example of what Universal decided to do with “Trolls World Tour” (Walt Dohrn, David P. Smith, 2020). Understandably, this decision has angered theatre owners, who strongly rely on family films like this one. Moreover, many films that were in theatres at the time this whole pandemic started have also decided to be released earlier in VOD services, such as “The Invisible Man” (Leigh Whannell, 2020) or Pixar’s “Onward” (Dan Scanlon, 2020). This means it is very probable that many of the latest films that were released in cinemas will do the same.

 

I am of course worried for theatres. I love them and understand this situation is a big blow to them. When they open, I wonder how many will make it? At the same time, think about it: when they do open, they might have restrictions on their capacity, which means less income. Also, some sanitary measures might have to be taken such as disinfecting between screenings. This takes time, which means less screenings per day. Also, taking into consideration the economic blow to the world’s population, who will be able to afford to go to the theatres? 

 

Nevertheless, those theatres that do open, I’m guessing will probably have many films for them to release. Although I am wondering if many bigger films will be pushed back to a time they know there are no capacity restrictions. Think about it, those big blockbusters have a huge investment in their marketing campaigns and they are not going to risk it. On the other hand, I believe many smaller films are probably going to be pushed away from theatres for a while. If smaller films had it tough before, you can only imagine how hard it’s going to be now. With “Black Widow” and many other films in the back burner ready to make the money, which theatre would want to play a small author film? Will this mean many smaller films will be relegated to VOD platforms? I sure hope not. This is not only hard on new film creators but also small production companies and distribution companies who will not be able to find a slot to program their film in this already saturated market.

 

Which brings us to another bright side of the industry: streaming is up. And I believe this has given the chance for smaller films to be discovered worldwide such as “El Hoyo” aka “The Platform” (Galder Gaztelu-Urrutia, 2019) on Netflix. However, this is not necessary the rule. Usually, many smaller films get buried in an avalanche of other big titles that are in big streaming platforms. Lulu Wang explains it best here. 

 

 

In any case, one has to wonder: how long are these subscriptions going to keep growing for? Depending on how long the lockdown lasts, at some point, they’ll need new products. The trouble is, at this time, nothing is being filmed. Maybe they’ll rely on old catalogue films that people trust and love. I think that’s a great strategy, however, at one point or another, they’re going to need new products to draw in more subscribers… which brings us to production.

 

Sadly, the coronavirus has impacted film productions too. All film productions have been halted and it is unclear when people will be able to resume them. This means there will also be an important bottle neck of film productions when everything starts going back to normal. Not only that, I’m guessing some films might even get cancelled or postponed indefinitely depending on the economic situation after all of this is over. Studios and production companies will reprioritise their films and release schedules. I do think, however, that now is an important time for many creatives. I’m sure as I write this there are many writers who are full of ideas and find themselves with the time and space to develop them. I think many great ideas will come from this crisis. The question is, will they be able to go beyond the written page?

 

It seems the industry is quickly trying to adapt when it can. Soon after South by Southwest (SXSW) was cancelled, a partnership with Amazon was announced. The idea was for the participating films to be shown on the platform, offering exposure to many of these new creators that were going to show their films in the festival. However, there has been a bit of a debate. Although Amazon was paying the filmmakers a screening fee to exhibit their films, it wasn’t clear how this fee is calculated. I’m guessing the issue being if the fee was fixed or if it depended on the number of views. Moreover, many filmmakers who already had distribution were worried they wouldn’t be able to be a part of this plan while those filmmakers that didn’t have distribution were worried that this initiative might damage their possibilities of getting a distributor. As you can see, it’s a complicated situation and although this alternative seemed like an interesting proposal, there are still many loose ends where new filmmakers can be left feeling unprotected. As I am writing this article it has been announced that only 7 of the 135 films that were invited decided to participate in this event. If you are interested, it’s only available in the US and it’s free to all audiences with or without an Amazon Prime membership.

 

Alternatively, Cannes has decided to postpone its festival. There were many rumours that the festival might take place virtually, however, Thierry Frémaux is against this idea.  Let’s remember that, in 2018, Frémaux banned streaming films to be in competition in Cannes’s Film Festival, so I believe it’s coherent with his belief that films that participate in the festival should have a theatrical window. However, given the circumstances and depending on how long this pandemic lasts (I have heard some epidemiologists mention there might be another COVID resurgence in the winter time) I wonder if Thierry Frémaux will at some point reconsider his position on films being screened virtually. Only time will tell. There are so many possible variables at the moment that it’s hard to make any plans.

 

In any case, many filmmakers are probably wondering what to do with their already finished films that were meant for the Festival circuit. Many films have a very concrete strategy for their run, which involves of course Festivals, award shows as well as their correct programming in theatres. With the uncertainty we are facing today, those strategies are hard to rewrite.

 

Interestingly, however, Cannes has decided to not cancel their film market (Marché du Film). Instead, it has been postponed and will be done virtually. I believe Cannes is the first big market to do this so it’s going to be interesting to see how it goes.

 

So yeah. The times they are a-changin’. (Shoutout to my dad who is a big Bob Dylan fan). It’s too soon to make predictions but I’m sure, seeing how things are going, film exploitation will change. The windows will change. How we consume will change. Many initiatives are being taken to bring films to our homes in this time of crisis. Read this. Second shoutout to Filmin (an amazingly curated Spanish VOD platform) which screened Xavier Dolan’s “Matthias & Maxime” with great success. (PS: I have a soft spot for Xavier Dolan films -and soundtracks- which I definitely need to write about at some point. “Matthias & Maxime” was sublime).

 

Analysts are talking about drastic changes with a reduction in cinema screens and more studio mergers. Maybe so in traditional Hollywood. But there is something not many are talking about. Nowadays we have the technology to keep creating and keep sharing. Unlike what happened during the Spanish Flu, we now have cameras in our phones. Most of us can record and edit films in the palm of our hand. And we can share them through platforms such as YouTube or Vimeo. Those creations can reach many. I believe a new generation of creators will emerge from this and they will have a great following on social media. So yeah. The film industry is being affected by the coronavirus. But films aren’t going anywhere. Unlike 1918, we now have Netflix, Amazon (among many other platforms) and DVDs. We can turn to “Gilmore Girls” for comfort. We now have the time to watch that film we love with our loved ones and see their reaction. One thing’s for sure: Films are now and will always be a big part of our lives. I’m sure we are not going to let them go away.