It’s been a while since I wrote my article on how the coronavirus could affect the film industry. At the time I wrote that article, the pandemic was just about starting around the world. The film industry, like many others, had basically stopped in the hopes of gaining more visibility. Now, as things are slowly going back to this new normal, two films are surely going to become game-changers. Let’s talk about about “Tenet”, “Mulan” and the future of theaters.

A little over five months have passed after the pandemic first hit. The film industry is slowly starting to “turn back on”. Actors are on sets again and movie theaters have also opened up around the world. Everyone is, taking safety measures. For actors, it means regular testing and confinement. As for movie theaters, as we touched upon my previous article, they are leaving free seats to allow for social distancing, regular disinfecting and, of course, the required use of masks. It’s great that theaters are doing their best to bring people in. There’s just one issue, though: except for “Tenet” (Christopher Nolan, 2020), no big blockbusters are being released at the moment. Which leaves theaters with smaller titles that don’t bring the amount of revenue they need right now. Usually, summer is a time for big blockbuster releases and crowded theaters. Not this summer, though. 

 

It’s great that cinemas are doing their best to bring people in. There’s just one issue, though: except for “Tenet” (Christopher Nolan, 2020), no big blockbusters are being released at the moment. Which leaves theaters with smaller titles that don’t bring the amount of revenue they need right now. Usually, summer is a time for big blockbuster releases and crowded theaters. Not this summer, though. 

 

It’s sad because there should be solidarity between theaters and distributors. Theaters need films to survive. After having been closed down for such a long time, they especially need those big films that bring people to the building. But distributors don’t want to risk it. In a way, this has allowed for smaller films to get better box office results than they would have had they been released some other time. The lack of big blockbuster competition has allowed them to shine. Hey, I’m all for that. I’m not sure cinemas are, though. 

 

I’m torn in this situation. I sympathise with theaters that are mad that some big films are being released straight to VOD. At the same time, I can understand why big distributors don’t want to release their big films right now. There is no visibility with this pandemic. Theaters started opening in Spain and a few weeks later were closed in Barcelona for a couple of weeks due to a resurgence of the virus. Theaters have since reopened in Barcelona but still we don’t know if they will have to close again if there is a strong resurgence of the virus in the winter, as many scientists are predicting there will be. What then? What if you plan and invest in a big theatrical campaign only to have theaters close again? 

 

That’s why I greatly admire those distributors who decide to distribute their bigger films in theaters. This has happened in Spain with the release of “Padre no hay más que uno 2” (Santiago Segura, 2020), the sequel to a big comedy in Spain. I find this release doubly important as it not only helps Spanish theaters, it also sets a precedent for Spanish film releases. It’s like the film is jumping into the water and telling others “Hey, the water is not as cold as you thought. Come join me. There’s room here for all of us!”.

 

Without a doubt, one of the most important and bravest theatrical releases right now is Warner Bros. and Christopher Nolan’s release of “Tenet”. The reason why it’s important is that, again, “Tenet” might be a precedent for future blockbuster releases. It’s brave because however well this works, the film will not be doing as well as it would under normal circumstances. In that sense, I think there is a great solidarity on behalf of Warner Bros. and Christopher Nolan, a gesture that I’m sure theaters will not forget any time soon. “Tenet” is definitely the kind of film theaters need. The kind of film that you need to watch in theaters because essentially its whole premise requires you to. I mean, no Nolan film is meant to be watched in the small screen PERIOD. It’s the kind of film you need to watch as soon as it’s released in order not to be spoiled, in order to be able to talk about it over coffee with your work colleagues (ZOOM coffee, that is).

 

What is also unprecedented in this “Tenet” release is that it’s being released internationally before being released in the USA and other countries. You can read more about the release it will have in this article. I’m sure this release will be a breath of fresh air for theaters, but I’m not certain it will be enough. Theatres will need other big releases if they want to keep going and it doesn’t look like we’re getting many any time soon. Especially after Disney’s decision to release “Mulan” (Niki Caro, 2020) directly on their streaming service.

 

Unlike Warner Bros., Disney seems to have opted for what seems to me like a safer option. After postponing the “Mulan” theatrical release from March to July and from July to the end of August, Disney has finally decided to skip theaters altogether and release it directly in their streaming platform for an additional 29,99$ (on top of your Disney+ subscription). This only applies to those markets where Disney + is available. And the price for the film also varies in the different territories. I’m not sure I should describe this release as safer though. My thinking is that by putting the film in their platform Disney receives 100% of the profits (ergo, safer). However, as this Variety article mentions, this also limits the market to those people who subscribe to the platform plus maybe a few others who will subscribe just to watch the film. That being said, to make a profit, Disney would not only have to make up for $200 million production budget, it will also need to make up for that marketing campaign for that theatrical release that never happened in the most important markets. 

 

Some questions do pop up for me. For example, how long will this exclusive Premium VOD window be open? Will this window be as long as a Theatrical window would have been? Or will it be as long as a Premium VOD? Maybe they will simply adjust this window accordingly depending on how well the film does? Because I think the length of this window might influence someone’s choice to pay almost 30$ to view this film at home. For that price, if the window is not as long, maybe someone prefers to wait for the Blu-Ray, or wait for it to hit the regular subscription service.

 

Many have considered the price for “Mulan” excessive. Personally, I understand that those used to going to a theater as a couple or individually might find this price expensive. However, the people at Disney are anything but stupid. Who is the target of this film? Children. And who brings children to theaters? Their parents, of course. So, if you think about it, it’s quite affordable for families who are probably used to paying over 50$ during a movie night. Also, I’m sure Disney is probably taking into account that more than one person will be watching the film per subscription, so if you think about it, it’s not as expensive as it initially sounds.

 

Just as the decision to release “Trolls World Tour” (Walt Dohrn, David P. Smith, 2020) directly in VOD upset theater owners, Disney’s decision to release this movie directly on their platform has been a hard blow to theaters globally. This decision strengthens PVOD (Pay Video on Demand) window, which is of course gaining a momentum due to the pandemic. Disney could have opted for a mixed release: have a limited theatrical release as well as offer the film in Premium VOD. This way, those who don’t feel safe enough to go to theaters could view the films from the comfort of their homes, while those who want to support theaters, will also be able to. I’m sure Disney has their reasons to have opted for this business model. Disney’s CEO has already stated that this release is just a “one-off” and it’s not setting a precedent for the rest of Disney Releases. It seems to me like Disney, like others, are currently studying their options. They are trying out different kinds of baits and seeing which one works best for audiences… and for them. 

 

With this in mind, these two releases are probably being studied in detail for future releases of other big films. Many say whatever model works best will mark a precedent for the future. However, I don’t think it’s an A or B scenario at this point. We’re at such an early stage right now, I really think hybrid releases are possible, especially for these types of films. What I am more worried about is smaller films. Sadly, we have no idea how long this pandemic will last or when we will get a vaccine. I do however believe that it will have long lasting effects in all aspects of the film industry. Not only on how films are produced but also how they will distributed. I personally believe theatrical experience will become rare after the pandemic.

 

I really hope I’m wrong, but I think theaters that do survive this pandemic will be mostly releasing big films. Smaller films will be reserved for a straight to Home Video (if physical distribution continues to work. I’m thinking it might make a comeback thanks to this pandemic) or straight to streaming release. It is possible there is a bottleneck of releases at first. Or maybe not. Maybe studios don’t want to sit on big films for two years and opt for the “Mulan” release model, the “Tenet” release model or something in between.

 

Whatever it is, I think theaters will be reserved for three types of films: Big Budget Action Films (James Bond, Mission Impossible), Super Hero Movies (Marvel / DC) or movies by A-List directors. Smaller releases won’t be viable. Does this distribution model sound familiar? There is someone who is working like this. I’m talking about Netflix. Most of the Netflix produced films go directly on their platform. However, films with big names attached which can win awards and therefore increase their brand value, get special treatment. 

 

Of course, it is quite soon to be making predictions and, as I mentioned, I really hope I am wrong about this one. However, if things continue to go as they are, I believe this is a very plausible scenario. Time will tell, I guess. Meanwhile, it’s important for us to help in any way we can. Go to theaters if you feel safe. Buy movies (whether it’s digital or physical format). Subscribe to On-Demand platforms. Most importantly, don’t forget to share what you love with others. You never know when your favourite movie can make someone else smile too.